August 24, 2018
The Markets: Don’t Be Surprised
When I was coaching my son Vance, our team played in various tournaments in Southern California. In one particular tournament one of the opposing teams was named “The Mama’s Boys”. When I saw we were facing them early in the tournament I remember telling one of the other coaches “with a name like that they are going to be really bad or don’t be surprised if they are really good.” Suffice it to say, they were really, really good. And the surprise was on us.
Things rarely go exactly how you expect them to but that’s life. And the stuff that we expect to happen one way sometimes comes at us from a whole different direction.
Here are some things I’ve been thinking about that might fit that whole other direction bill.
Many say a trade war is the biggest threat to the US economy….but don’t be surprised if things work out in a positive manner. A lot of the potential problems people see regarding tariffs and trade are self-inflicted. And since that is the case, they can be undone and corrected.
Don’t be surprised if the market gets a lot higher than you think it can…conversely don’t be surprised when the market falls, it can fall much further than you can imagine.
So when you invest, always think first about risk and only then should you consider possible rewards.
And in the same vein, many question how the markets can continue to rise despite all the seemingly endless turmoil that is in the news. Well don’t be surprised if investors look past this because the key factor for the market is the economy and right now the economy is doing well.
Don’t be surprised if the next recession is triggered by a drop in the stock market as opposed to the market dropping due to a recession.
The biggest expectation in politics is that the Democrats are going to take back the House of Representatives and Senate in November. One thing we learned in the past few years is to expect the unexpected so don’t be surprised if the GOP maintains at least one branch of Congress. And don’t be surprised if the markets will like that.
If it is true what we have been told about more people leaving the state of California than are coming in, then don’t be surprised if real estate prices here in this high tax state start to decline.
To that point, governments are looking for taxes everywhere…so don’t be surprised if there is an assault on Prop 13 here in CA…it is already happening in the commercial real estate market.
Artificial Intelligence, called AI, is all the rage and it’s out of the genie’s bottle.
Personally I’m in favor of GI…genuine intelligence…but don’t be surprised that as AI arrives that it causes more problems than it solves.
For you sports fans don’t be surprised if the Dodgers, despite the relief pitching woes, make it to the playoffs again and don’t be surprised if the Lakers struggle.
And lastly, despite all of the doom and gloom, all the negativity, all the divisiveness we hear in the news don’t believe all of it and don’t be surprised if the sun comes up tomorrow and it turns out to be a great day.