Hi Everybody,
I hope all is well, and that you’re ready for a great summer. In this brief video, I’ll be commenting on one of the supposed drivers of volatility in the financial markets, and then I’ll share a poem with you.
The supposed driver of market volatility is uncertainty. You might be surprised to learn that an uncertainty index was developed back in 1997. And perhaps not surprisingly, this index is currently at its highest level since its inception. So, what does that tell you about the markets? Personally, it doesn’t tell me much. Of course, we don’t know what’s happening with tariffs, the tax bill, or the deficit, or with anything else for that matter. But here’s what we do know: There is never a time when there is certainty. Just because the weatherman forecasts sun tomorrow doesn’t mean it can’t rain.
Consider the recent basketball playoffs, where the Knicks were down by 20 points multiple times, seemingly certain to lose, yet they still won. Sports are always uncertain, and so is politics. In fact, uncertainty is a constant in life itself. When it comes to the financial markets, there are many valid reasons to sell your stocks or bonds, like needing cash for a vacation, college expenses, a home remodel, or lending money to a family member. However, uncertainty should never be a reason to sell your stocks. We all know there’s never absolute certainty in anything, yet we manage to get by, and that won’t change. Now you know my thoughts on uncertainty.
On a different note, we all know someone who seems to be the smartest person in the room. I’ve even heard it said that if you’re the smartest person in the room, you’re in the wrong room. With that in mind, I’m now going to read you a poem called “Smart” by Shel Silverstein, which is about a child who wants his Dad to think he’s the smartest person in the room when it comes to finance.
—
Smart
by Shel Silverstein
My dad gave me one dollar bill
‘Cause I’m his smartest son,
And I swapped it for two shiny quarters
‘Cause two is more than one!
And then I took the quarters
And traded them to Lou For three dimes— I guess he didn’t know
That three is more than two!
Just then, along came old blind Bates,
And just ’cause he can’t see,
He gave me four nickels for my three dimes,
And four is more than three!
And I took the nickels to Hiram Coombs Down at the seed-feed store,
And the fool gave me five pennies for them,
And five is more than four!
And I went and showed my dad,
And he got red in the cheeks
And closed his eyes and shook his head—
Too proud of me to speak!
—
I can’t say for certain, but I hope that made you smile. Until next time, I’m Phil Albitz, and thanks for watching.
